OPINION India’s Iran Challenge India walks delicate tightrope on Iran, given the domestic political situation, Sunni-Shia relations, growing energy needs, and a looming void in Afghanistan after the US departure HARSH V. PANT

OPINION India's Iran Challenge India walks delicate tightrope on Iran, given the domestic political situation, Sunni-Shia relations, growing energy needs, and a looming void in Afghanistan after the US departure HARSH V. PANT http://outlookindia.com/article.aspx?279948 As Iran's global isolation grows amid reports that it's begun operating a new generation of centrifuges at its main uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, India is the last major power adamantly maintaining close ties with Iran. The West wants India to join Western trade sanctions against Tehran and accept its global responsibilities. But India's resistance to the pressure underlines how deeply intertwined the country's foreign policy is with its domestic concerns. Loss of Iranian oil and ability to provide subsidized fuel could affect the electoral outcome for the ruling coalition. The bomb blast in New Delhi on 13 February targeting an Israeli diplomat, which Tel Aviv was quick to blame on Tehran and its proxies, has posed a further challenge to India's policymakers. Meanwhile, Iran has pre-empted the West before the latest round of sanctions, due to start this summer, by threatening to block shipments of crude oil to six European nation. And in a speech on Wednesday, Iran's president announced intentions to share nuclear technology with other nations. Publicly India maintains a brave face, yet there are growing concerns about Iranian actions making India a battleground for the proxy war between Iran on the one hand and Israel and the West on the other. India too is keen to maintain ties with Iran, as both share concern about preventing Taliban takeover of Afghanistan after the forthcoming US withdrawal. The Indian commerce minister was quick to underline that trade between New Delhi and Tehran is unlikely to be affected by recent events. A huge trade delegation is slated to go to Tehran in March to explore export opportunities, which according to some estimates are worth more than $10 billion annually. So far, India's response has been low key, but New Delhi, is readying itself to tackle the challenge of growing Iranian isolation. Saudi Arabia has offered to make up for the Iranian shortfall. But India opposes the US and EU unilateral sanctions, particularly if Turkey blocks India's use of an intermediary bank to make payments for $12 billion worth of Iranian annual crude exports. US policymakers have warned New Delhi that it would be subject to American sanctions if New Delhi is seen in any way trying to bail out Iran from its tough economic situation. India imports 12 percent of its oil from Iran, its second largest supplier after Saudi Arabia. India's finance minister was merely reflecting on the intersection between domestic and foreign policy when he suggested that it's impossible for India to "reduce the imports from Iran drastically" in light of a growing budget deficit and need to continue oil subsidies so as not to enrage citizens during a state election year. India and the United States began to transform their ties, with the 2005 framework for the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement, which accommodated India into the global nuclear order. Given the US obsession, Iran has become a litmus test that India is occasionally asked to pass to satisfy US policymakers: India has been asked to prove its loyalty to the United States by lining up behind Washington at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the question of Iran's nuclear program. The Bush administration stated that if India voted against the February 2006US motion on Iran at the IAEA, Congress would likely not approve the Indo-US nuclear agreement. India finally voted in February 2006 with 26 other nations to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. Nevertheless, many members of Congress continued to demand that Washington make the nuclear deal conditional on New Delhi's ending all military relations with Tehran, a demand rejected by the Bush administration as it would have led the collapse of the nuclear deal from India's side. At the same time, the Indian Left parties also developed a parallel obsession, making Iran an issue emblematic of India's "strategic autonomy," an attempt to coerce New Delhi into following an ideological, anti-American foreign policy. These trends persist in New Delhi and Washington. Navigating these crosscurrents, India's official position on the Iranian nuclear question has remained largely consistent. Although India maintains that Iran has the right to pursue civilian nuclear energy, it has insisted that Iran should clarify doubts raised by the IAEA regarding Iran's compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India shares with the West the belief that Iranian nuclear ambitions would destabilize the Middle East. The Indian Prime Minister is on record suggesting that a nuclear Iran is not in India's national interest. But New Delhi does not have the luxury of viewing Iranian nuclear ambitions only through the prism of Iran-Israel rivalry, a norm in the West. India, a country with a sizable Sunni and Shia population, must consider this issue from a wider perspective where the Iranian nuclear drive instigates Arab-Iran and Sunni-Shia rivalry. For Tehran, its nuclear ambitions are as much a counter to a two-front encirclement of Shias by Sunni Pakistan and Sunni Saudi Arabia as it is about ending Israel's nuclear monopoly in the region. The Riyadh declaration signed in January 2010 during the Indian prime minister's visit asked Iran to "remove regional and international doubts about its nuclear weapons program." India even endorsed the Arab call for a nuclear-weapons free Middle East— a proposal traditionally targeting Israel, but increasingly focused on Iran. India has its own energy interests and would like to increase its presence in the Iranian energy sector. Given rapidly rising energy needs, New Delhi rightfully feels restless about its own marginalisation in Iran. Western sanctions over the years have led to an entrenchment of Chinese companies in the Iranian oil and gas sector with contracts worth up to $40 billion in recent years. Chinese companies bring much-needed foreign capital to Iran, and China's state-backed oil trading companies are likely to be main beneficiaries of the Western embargo on Iranian oil exports. Where Beijing's economic engagement with Iran is growing, India's presence is shrinking, as firms like Reliance Industries have, partially under Western pressure, withdrawn from Iran and others shelve investment plans. India has dutifully enforced UN measures against Iran, often to the detriment of its energy investments. Yet China, as permanent Security Council member, helps shape UN policy toward Iran and has been able to sustain its own energy business in the country without much trouble. The strategic reality confronting New Delhi in the Middle East today is that India has significant interests to preserve in the Arab Gulf. As tensions rise between Sunni Arab regimes and Iran, India's larger stakes in the Arab world, will continue to inhibit Indian–Iranian ties. At the same time, New Delhi's outreach to Tehran remains circumscribed by the internal power struggle within Iran, growing tensions between Iran and Arab neighbours, and Iran's continued defiance of the global nuclear order. Tehran's purported role in a bomb attack on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Delhi and the use of India as a platform for such an attack would further intensify pressure on India to curtail its trade relationship with Iran. Yet given the domestic political situation shaped by the coming state and national elections and growing energy needs, and a looming void in Afghanistan after the US departure, New Delhi isn't in a position to jettison Tehran completely in the immediate future. Harsh V. Pant teaches in King's College, London. Rights:Copyright © 2012 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. YaleGlobal Online TEXT SIZE    PRINT SHARE COMMENTS FILED IN:  AUTHORS:  HARSH V. PANT  TAGS:  INDO-IRAN | TERROR IN INDIA | MUSLIMS | NUCLEAR WEAPONS  SECTION:  INTERNATIONAL  SUBSECTION:  OPINION  PLACES:  ISRAEL TRANSLATE INTO: Select LanguageAfrikaansAlbanianArabicBelarusianBulgarianCatalanChinese (Simplified)Chinese (Traditional)CroatianCzechDanishDutchEstonianFilipinoFinnishFrenchGalicianGermanGreekHaitian CreoleHebrewHindiHungarianIcelandicIndonesianIrishItalianJapaneseKoreanLatvianLithuanianMacedonianMalayMalteseNorwegianPersianPolishPortugueseRomanianRussianSerbianSlovakSlovenianSpanishSwahiliSwedishThaiTurkishUkrainianVietnameseWelshYiddish Powered by Translate   DAILY MAIL HAVE YOUR SAY |  READ ALL 6 COMMENTS  6/D-73 FEB 20, 2012 04:56 PM One supports us in War on Islamic Terror and supplies Arms .Israel's timely air lifting of special purpose Arms in Kargil conflict hastened the early end of the War and Pakistan had to beg USA for bail out . Iran supplies us oil .But opposes on Kashmir.Iran also provides us the route to Afghanistan for the Humanitarian Aid we give .And is our Land link to Afghanistan passes through it .Iran is a Shia country & like us it is too victim of Sunni Terrorists ( Harsh words but the Truth ). Keep both of them as friends .But don't antagonize the West too . A K GHAI MUMBAI, INDIA  PERMALINK  |   LIKE (2)  |   DISLIKE (0)  |   REPORT ABUSE 5/D-2 FEB 20, 2012 01:58 AM A thoughtful and balanced article. ANWAAR DALLAS, UNITED STATES  PERMALINK  |   LIKE (0)  |   DISLIKE (0)  |   REPORT ABUSE 4/D-89 FEB 18, 2012 01:50 PM Recently after western sanctions, India has become a life line for Iranian economy. Out of total oil import, India buys 12% oil from Iran. Iran has just stared accepting oil payments in Indian currency. India is also resisting western pressure to break off economic ties with Iran so I guess India has taken a fair stand on so called Iran challenge. But the whole drama is not just between Israel-US and Iran. Purer Muhammadans (who think Shiaism is not true Islam) are also active behind the scene. The darkest land of planet (even darker than Somalia) Saudi Arabia is actually supporting and insisting US to destroy Iranian nuclear plants. Israelis have been meeting Saudis to finalize the attack. In case of Iran goes nuclear with weapons, Saudi Arabia will sure follow the path to get nukes. And it will try to buy them directly probably from Pakistan. Most Sunni states in Arab are dead against Iran getting nuclear weapons. So any attack on Iran may also lead to infighting among Arab states.   GAMBLER THAR, INDIA  PERMALINK  |   LIKE (0)  |   DISLIKE (1)  |   REPORT ABUSE 3/D-88 FEB 18, 2012 01:46 PM International Atomic Energy Agency has long before installed CCTV cameras at Iranian plants to monitor and so far agency has not indicated any sign that Iran is actually diverting its Uranium enrichment towards nuclear weapons.Its not that Iran is run by the modern angels but rather it is in the deadly grip of Jupiter ideology. But current scenario resembles the pre Iraq invasion days. When WMD were at Mars, US completely lied about their location and virtually ruined an entire country. Saddam was cruel but his forced dictatorship was better than current mayhem. Strangely at Baghdad University, girls wearing skirts was pretty common sight. Baghdad was much more lively with its dance, music and relatively tolerant for many un-Islamic things. Ironically when almost all Islamic states were discharging their holy Islamic duty of condemning and voting against ultimate Kafir country India on Kashmir, if I am not wrong Iraq actually supported India. US cited two reasons for destroying Iraq: WMD and Saddam's support for Osama. Both proved utter lies. Recently National Geographic Channel broadcasted a documentary on Saddam's capture and his interrogation. Dramatization and interview with CIA agent, who interrogated Saddam, were shown in film. Saddam not only refuted both claims but at the end of documentary he said, which was confirmed by CIA, that he has always opposed Al-Qaeda and Laden and never supported them.    GAMBLER THAR, INDIA  PERMALINK  |   LIKE (3)  |   DISLIKE (0)  |   REPORT ABUSE 2/D-82 FEB 18, 2012 01:32 PM Ashok, it might look as if the Iranians are painting themselves into a corner -- the other view is that Iran is exercising its rights and resisting pressure from the US-led combine. A few things are clear either way, and this is hardly a comprehensive list: (1) Israel is the only nuclear power (as of now) in the Middle East; (2) nothing is being done to put pressure on Israel to abandon its nuclear arsenal; (3) America has a military presence practically all over the Gulf; (4) America is practically wedded to Israel; (5) most nations in the Gulf are closely allied to the US policy; (6) America would like the total control over the Gulf and its resources, and ensure protection for Israel; (7) Iran cannot feel secure in the current scenario; (8) unlike a few other nations in the Gulf, Iran is a civilizationally resilient country and has an independent foreign policy; (9) again, unlike a few other nations in the Gulf, Iran has always stood with India, especially on the Kashmir issue (whether or not our Kashmir policy is right or wrong is debatable); (10) our relations with Israel are about 20 years old, with the US maybe about 70 years and with Iran more than 1400 years (further conclusions can be drawn) and (11) the media almost always are partial with the truth.  It could very well be that Iran is pursuing a nuclear device, given its security concerns, and the saber rattling from the US–Israel combine – although not a positive development, it should be understood by being aware of the larger picture. All major powers (including India) would do well to try and defuse tensions, caution against any misadventure against Iran and hope that things do not get any worse than they already are.  p.s. You might find the links below interesting:http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/10/a_martian_view_of_the_iran_debate; http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East.html SANTOSH JOHN SAMUEL KOCHI, INDIA  PERMALINK  |   LIKE (2)  |   DISLIKE (0)  |   REPORT ABUSE