Three reasons why Narendra Modi's race to 7RCR is far from over
By Soma Banerjee, ET Bureau | 15 Sep, 2013, 06.59AM IST
The BJP anoints Narendra Modi as prime minister in waiting, but it's still a long way to 7 Race Course Road.Strides Arcolab Ltd.
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When the BJP named Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate on Friday, sections of media labelled it a 'coronation', which suggests that Modi had won the crown and the right to sit on the throne. Not yet: rather, he is the man who the BJP will coronate if it stridesBSE 0.45 % to power. That's still a big if. For three reasons:
1. Peaking too soon
General elections for the 16th Lok Sabha are still eight months away, if you go by the UPA's stated intention to stay in office for its full term. Modi, however, has been working on a different time line. His campaign began a year ago and took off after he was elected for the third time in a row in Gujarat in December. From June 2013 onwards, when the BJP proclaimed Modi as head of the campaign committee — a virtual dress rehearsal for the coronation — the pace hastened.
An interview in which he used the analogy of a puppy being run over when referring to those who died in the 2002 Gujarat riots and billboards put up by BJP henchmen declaring Modi as a "patriot" and a "Hindu nationalist" helped raise the decibel level to a new intensity. At the same time the prodevelopment image has been pushed not just in the direction of local industry but market movers and shakers on the international stage.
A section of analysts wonders whether Modi can maintain that frenetic tempo for another six to eight months. The fear is that he may well peak out on the last leg. The Congress, meantime, appears in no hurry to officially declare its PM candidate, the prime minister's recent remark that he is willing to work under Rahul Gandhi notwithstanding.
2. With friends like these who needs enemies
Most within the party and outside concur that the BJP's fortunes in 2014 depend on this one man as he is the largest crowd puller and the most popular face in the party today. But a few chief ministers in BJP-run states may not be amongst the most fervent cheerleaders.
These include Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh, CMs of two states that go to the polls in a month. Analysts point out it would be in the interest of these CMs if the announcement of the BJP candidate for PM was done after these elections. For two reasons: one, to avoid polarisation of voters in those states; and, two, to ensure they didn't have to share the credit if the BJP returned to power. Also, in his no-holds-barred charge to the top, Modi may have rubbed many around him the wrong way.
1. Peaking too soon
General elections for the 16th Lok Sabha are still eight months away, if you go by the UPA's stated intention to stay in office for its full term. Modi, however, has been working on a different time line. His campaign began a year ago and took off after he was elected for the third time in a row in Gujarat in December. From June 2013 onwards, when the BJP proclaimed Modi as head of the campaign committee — a virtual dress rehearsal for the coronation — the pace hastened.
An interview in which he used the analogy of a puppy being run over when referring to those who died in the 2002 Gujarat riots and billboards put up by BJP henchmen declaring Modi as a "patriot" and a "Hindu nationalist" helped raise the decibel level to a new intensity. At the same time the prodevelopment image has been pushed not just in the direction of local industry but market movers and shakers on the international stage.
A section of analysts wonders whether Modi can maintain that frenetic tempo for another six to eight months. The fear is that he may well peak out on the last leg. The Congress, meantime, appears in no hurry to officially declare its PM candidate, the prime minister's recent remark that he is willing to work under Rahul Gandhi notwithstanding.
2. With friends like these who needs enemies
Most within the party and outside concur that the BJP's fortunes in 2014 depend on this one man as he is the largest crowd puller and the most popular face in the party today. But a few chief ministers in BJP-run states may not be amongst the most fervent cheerleaders.
These include Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh, CMs of two states that go to the polls in a month. Analysts point out it would be in the interest of these CMs if the announcement of the BJP candidate for PM was done after these elections. For two reasons: one, to avoid polarisation of voters in those states; and, two, to ensure they didn't have to share the credit if the BJP returned to power. Also, in his no-holds-barred charge to the top, Modi may have rubbed many around him the wrong way.
3. Game, set, but not match yet
He may be the PM candidate, but not all within the party are on board with that decision. LK Advani, despite much persuasion, chose to skip the BJP parliamentary board meet to announce Modi as PM candidate — just as he had skipped the national executive meet in Goa in June when he was announced head of the campaign committee. Congress leaderDigvijaya Singh had conspiratorially suggested to ET after Advani's subsequent resignation: "...Why shouldn't BJP party president Rajnath Singh want to be the Atal Bihari Vajpayee in BJP today? Everyone has prime ministerial ambitions."
Rajnath is considered in political circles to be the biggest beneficiary of the Advani resignation drama as it showcased him as a "consensual alternative", gaining the most from Modi's "discomfiture". Sushma Swaraj, leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha who had expressed her reservations on Modi, had said it would be difficult for her to remain a leader of opposition if Modi was declared the party's PM candidate. A day before Modi was named, a reluctant Swaraj fell in line.
Modi is often described as 'me, me and me', a reference to his megalomaniac personality that he wears on his sleeve. KC Tyagi, a senior leader of the Janata Dal (United), said that with Modi it is either fall in line or fall out; and that BJP members who have opposed him should be ready to face the music soon. Those waiting for a chance to pull the rug from under Modi's feet — veteran BJP leader Sudheendra Kulkarni made a quip to a television channel that a poll amongst BJP leaders would reveal how popular indeed Modi is within the party — may well be banking on the numbers game post-elections to get back into the game.
The BJP will need to get more than 180 seats, closer to 200, to form the government with its allies and some friendly support from outside. This is no easy task and Modi's detractors know this well as he is not acceptable to allies like the JD(U) and TDP. Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times, wrote in ET on Saturday: "Unless Indians give a shocker of a mandate and hand a majority to the BJP on its own, Modi will either be proverbially relegated to the dustbins of history or will have to cope with allies who are no pygmies in their own backyards."
Modi as a polarisation factor doesn't end with the allies. As Kulkarni, who is Advani's close aide, told a TV channel on Thursday: "A person like Modi will divide the society...and has become a polarising figure in the party as well. He won't be able to give a stable government." If there are many more besides Advani and Swaraj in the BJP who also feel this way, 7 Race Course Road — the official residence and work place of the prime minister of India — may indeed be still some distance away for Modi.
He may be the PM candidate, but not all within the party are on board with that decision. LK Advani, despite much persuasion, chose to skip the BJP parliamentary board meet to announce Modi as PM candidate — just as he had skipped the national executive meet in Goa in June when he was announced head of the campaign committee. Congress leaderDigvijaya Singh had conspiratorially suggested to ET after Advani's subsequent resignation: "...Why shouldn't BJP party president Rajnath Singh want to be the Atal Bihari Vajpayee in BJP today? Everyone has prime ministerial ambitions."
Rajnath is considered in political circles to be the biggest beneficiary of the Advani resignation drama as it showcased him as a "consensual alternative", gaining the most from Modi's "discomfiture". Sushma Swaraj, leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha who had expressed her reservations on Modi, had said it would be difficult for her to remain a leader of opposition if Modi was declared the party's PM candidate. A day before Modi was named, a reluctant Swaraj fell in line.
Modi is often described as 'me, me and me', a reference to his megalomaniac personality that he wears on his sleeve. KC Tyagi, a senior leader of the Janata Dal (United), said that with Modi it is either fall in line or fall out; and that BJP members who have opposed him should be ready to face the music soon. Those waiting for a chance to pull the rug from under Modi's feet — veteran BJP leader Sudheendra Kulkarni made a quip to a television channel that a poll amongst BJP leaders would reveal how popular indeed Modi is within the party — may well be banking on the numbers game post-elections to get back into the game.
The BJP will need to get more than 180 seats, closer to 200, to form the government with its allies and some friendly support from outside. This is no easy task and Modi's detractors know this well as he is not acceptable to allies like the JD(U) and TDP. Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times, wrote in ET on Saturday: "Unless Indians give a shocker of a mandate and hand a majority to the BJP on its own, Modi will either be proverbially relegated to the dustbins of history or will have to cope with allies who are no pygmies in their own backyards."
Modi as a polarisation factor doesn't end with the allies. As Kulkarni, who is Advani's close aide, told a TV channel on Thursday: "A person like Modi will divide the society...and has become a polarising figure in the party as well. He won't be able to give a stable government." If there are many more besides Advani and Swaraj in the BJP who also feel this way, 7 Race Course Road — the official residence and work place of the prime minister of India — may indeed be still some distance away for Modi.
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